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確率に意味はあるのか/福岡県西方沖地震

NIKKEI NET:経済 ニュース:地震活動が低調な九州で予想外発生「1000年に1回未満」
より。

政府は昨年春「九州北部などで震度6弱の大地震が起きる確率は1000年に1回未満」と発表したばかり。想定外の大地震の発生は、どこで大地震が起きてもおかしくない「地震国」の現実を改めて示した。

低い確率だと、自分の生きている間には起こらないだろうという安心は与えても、起きたらどうしようと考えさせるきっかけは与えないだろう。

計算した結果が低い確率だったにせよ、それを公表することに何の意味があるのだろう。言わないほうがいいのではないだろうか。

結局、計算した結果が1000年に1回未満でも

0じゃなければいつでも起きうる

ことが今回の地震で証明されたのだから。

|

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